When AI really wanted to sell me more power drills
Here's another short example of where an "obvious" application of AI doesn't lead to good business outcomes:
I once bought a nice Bosch power drill from Amazon. For a long time after, Amazon would relentlessly push more power drills:
"Here are some power drills you might want to buy. Check out our deals on power drills. Hey, have you seen these latest power drills?"
But given that I had just bought my new drill, yet another drill would be among the least likely things I'd buy!
A typical recommendation algorithm, in straightforward terms, works like this:
Look at all the stuff user A has bought
Find other users whose purchase history is _similar_ to user A's.
Identify things those users have bought that user A hasn't yet bought and recommend those.
Of course, Amazon’s recommendation system is more complex than just what I've described (so-called collaborative filtering). Still, this misfire shows that even sophisticated AI can get things wrong. (They do apply more sophisticated content-based recommendations these days.)
This type of recommendation works great for books, CDs, movies: Categories with a wide range of items that can be sorted by genre or other matters of taste. In that regard, it mimics human recommendations: If I love historical fiction and you love historical fiction, we can share book recommendations, with additional purchases being likely.
However, collaborative filtering fails for categories like power tools or consumer electronics, where purchases are one-time and driven by need. If I buy a Bosch drill, I don't want another drill. I want things to help me get the most out of the one I just bought.
What Amazon should have been recommending:
Books on DIY projects
Bandaids 😬
A set of drillbits (square ones like we use here in Canada)
Instead of spamming me with drills, Amazon could have predicted what I needed next, turning a one-time sale into a series of useful purchases.
And to tie it all back to making AI work for you: Think all the way through to the intended outcome and don’t lazily stop short.
